Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Real-Time Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury

Background Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is common in critically ill patients, which is associated with significantly increased mortality. Existing mortality prediction tools showed insufficient predictive power or failed to reflect patients' dynamic clinical evolution. Therefore, the study aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models for real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI. Methods The multi-center retrospective study included patients from two distinct databases. A total of 12,132 SA-AKI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) were randomly allocated to the training, validation, and internal test sets. An additional 3,741 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) served as an external test set. For every 12 h during the ICU stays, the state-of-the-art eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to predict the risk of in-hospital death in the following 48, 72, and 120 h and in the first 28 days after ICU admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated to evaluate the models' performance. Results The XGBoost models, based on routine clinical variables updated every 12 h, showed better performance in mortality prediction than the SOFA score and SAPS-II. The AUCs of the XGBoost models for mortality over different time periods ranged from 0.848 to 0.804 in the internal test set and from 0.818 to 0.748 in the external test set. The shapley additive explanation method provided interpretability for the XGBoost models, which improved the understanding of the association between the predictor variables and future mortality. Conclusions The interpretable machine learning XGBoost models showed promising performance in real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI, which are useful tools for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions.