Modeling and Analysis of External Emergency Response to Ship Fire Using HTCPN and Markov Chain

The effectiveness of external emergency response to ship fires is critical in minimizing the serious consequences of ship fires. However, the insufficient consideration of the dynamic evolution of the emergency response may result in an inaccurate assessment of the effectiveness of ship fire emergency response. Therefore, we employ the theories of hierarchical timed colored Petri net (HTCPN) and Markov chains to evaluate the emergency response process to ship fire, and guide how to further improve emergency response capabilities. Firstly, the ship fire emergency response process is analyzed with ship fire emergency plans and accident cases. Next, the theory of Hierarchical Timed Colored Petri Net is adopted to model the ship fire emergency response process. Then, we calculated the performance metrics of the HTCPN model for ship fires using Markov chains, to identify the key nodes of this emergency response process. Several simulation experiments based on a fire accident data of "LONG QING 1 ″ are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of this proposed method. The key nodes of this emergency response process are identified as "emergency resource transportation", "firefighting operations", "surface search and rescue", and "developing emergency disposal plans". Some targeted suggestions for optimizing the emergency response process were put forward.