Hospital-treated Infectious Diseases, Genetic Susceptibility and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

Background: The longitudinal association between infectious diseases and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains unclear. Methods: Based on the UK Biobank, the prospective cohort study included a total of 396,080 participants without diabetes at baseline. We determined the types and sites of infectious diseases and incident T2D using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes (ICD-10). Time-varying Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the association. Infection burden was defined as the number of infection episodes over time and the number of co-occurring infections. Genetic risk score (GRS) for T2D consisted of 424 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Results: During a median of 9.04 [IQR, 8.3-9.7] years of follow-up, hospital-treated infectious diseases were associated with a greater risk of T2D (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.54 [95 % CI 1.46-1.61]), with risk difference per 10,000 individuals equal to 154.1 [95 % CI 140.7-168.2]. The heightened risk persisted after 5 years following the index infection. Bacterial infection with sepsis had the strongest risk of T2D (aHR 2.95 [95 % CI 2.53-3.44]) among different infection types. For site-specific analysis, bloodstream infections posed the greatest risk (3.01 [95 % CI 2.60-3.48]). A dose-response association was observed between infection burden and T2D risk within each GRS tertile (p-trend <0.001). High genetic risk and infection synergistically increased the T2D risk. Conclusion: Infectious diseases were associated with an increased risk of subsequent T2D. The risk showed specificity according to types, sites, severity of infection and the period since infection occurred. A potential accumulative effect of infection was revealed.