Short-term Extreme Response Estimation Methodology for Marine Umbilical Cables with Two Configuration Types

This study investigates the critical engineering problem of the short-term extreme responses of marine umbilical cables, which are essential components in offshore oil and gas operations. Umbilical cables play a pivotal role in connecting subsea systems to surface platforms, necessitating a safe design to withstand external loads. This study focused on two primary umbilical cable configuration types: deep-water catenary and shallow-water lazy wave. For each configuration type, 100 3-h dynamic numerical simulations were performed, with maximum values fitted by using the Gumbel distribution, and the most probable maximum (MPM) values were set as benchmark values. The average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method and uncertainty-incorporated ACER method were applied to study the short-term extreme values of umbilical cable responses based on limited sample data. The predicted results have been compared with the MPM values, and the accuracy and uncertainty of different efficient extreme-value analysis methods are discussed. This study provides a comprehensive methodological framework for the reliability analysis and safety design of umbilical cables in marine engineering.